Modesto

CAModesto Metropolitan Area

Real Estate Market Analysis

Q3 2025 Report
$444,500 (June 2025)
Median Home Price
~219,000 (2024 estimate)
Population
~$68,000 (2024 estimate)
Median Income
Modesto City Schools: Average to above average (GreatSchools ratings 5-7/10)
School District Rating

Market Overview

Property Values

$444,500 (June 2025)
Median Home Price
$309 (citywide); $370 (95354 ZIP)
Price per Sq Ft
+2.1% (2024-2025)
YoY Change

Market Performance

Days on Market19 days (typical pending time)
Market TypeSeller's market, competitive with quick sales
Months of SupplyData not specified; market is competitive with low inventory

Sales Activity

Sales VolumeData not specified; price and speed indicate active market
Metro AreaModesto Metropolitan Area
Population~219,000 (2024 estimate)

Economic Indicators

Employment & Growth

Unemployment RateData not specified for 2025; historically above CA average, but improving
Job Growth RateStable, supported by diversified economy
Median Household Income~$68,000 (2024 estimate)

Major Employers

  • E.&J. Gallo Winery
  • Memorial Medical Center
  • Modesto City Schools
  • Stanislaus County
  • Frito-Lay

Demographics

~219,000 (2024 estimate)
Population
35.5 years (2024 estimate)
Median Age
Stable to modest growth (+0.5% to +1% annually)
Population Growth
~21% bachelor's degree or higher
Education Level

Family Composition

Mix of families, singles, and retirees; strong presence of working-class households

Key Industries

AgricultureFood processingHealthcareEducationManufacturingLogistics

Education

School District

Modesto City Schools: Average to above average (GreatSchools ratings 5-7/10)
District Rating

Top Schools

  • Grace M. Davis High School
  • James C. Enochs High School
  • Modesto High School

Higher Education

  • Modesto Junior College
  • Nearby: California State University, Stanislaus (Turlock)

Infrastructure & Development

Major Projects

  • Downtown Modesto revitalization
  • Expansion of Modesto Junior College facilities

Transportation

  • Upgrades to Highway 99 and local roads
  • Expansion of public transit routes

Planned Developments

  • Mixed-use projects in downtown
  • New residential subdivisions on city outskirts

Lifestyle & Amenities

Recreation

  • Tuolumne River Regional Park
  • Dry Creek Trail
  • Numerous community parks

Dining & Entertainment

  • Downtown Modesto restaurants and bars
  • Vintage Faire Mall
  • Local breweries and cafes

Cultural Attractions

  • Gallo Center for the Arts
  • McHenry Museum
  • Annual Graffiti Summer Festival

Investment Analysis

Investment Opportunities

  • Steady home appreciation (+2.1% YoY)
  • Strong rental demand (median rent $1,695/mo)
  • Quick sales (19 days on market)
  • Revitalizing neighborhoods (e.g., Downtown)
  • Multi-family and student housing near Modesto Junior College

Growth Outlook

Stable, with moderate appreciation and strong rental market

Market Risks

  • Potential for price corrections if interest rates rise
  • Economic sensitivity to agriculture sector
  • Some neighborhoods with slower appreciation

Rental Market

Robust; significant renter population, low vacancy, reliable cash flow

Marketing Intelligence

Target Demographics

  • First-time buyers
  • Young families
  • Investors (local and out-of-area)
  • College students and staff

Marketing Channels

  • Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com
  • Social media (Facebook, Instagram)
  • Local real estate websites

Pricing Strategies

Price slightly below recent comps for quick offers in competitive segments

Common Objections & Response Strategies

Objection: Homes are too expensive for first-time buyers

Response Strategy:

Highlight down payment assistance programs and lower-priced neighborhoods

Objection: Interest rates are too high

Response Strategy:

Discuss adjustable-rate mortgages, rate buydowns, and potential for refinancing

Objection: Concerns about neighborhood safety

Response Strategy:

Provide local crime statistics, highlight neighborhood watch programs, and focus on safer areas

Professional Recommendations

1

Stay updated on local inventory and pricing trends

2

Network with local property managers for investor referrals

3

Educate buyers on financing options and assistance programs

4

Leverage digital marketing and virtual tours to reach remote buyers

5

Highlight Modesto's affordability and rental market strength in all marketing

Competitive Analysis

Comparable Markets

  • Stockton, CA
  • Merced, CA
  • Turlock, CA

Market Positioning

Affordable alternative to Bay Area and Sacramento with strong rental market

Competitive Advantages

  • Lower median price than Bay Area
  • Strong rental yields
  • Proximity to Bay Area jobs

Price Comparison

Modesto median home price ($444,500) is lower than Stockton ($475,000) and much lower than Bay Area cities

Investment Metrics

5-6% for multi-family (2025 estimate)
Cap Rates
~4.5-5% gross yield
Rental Yields
~22
Price-to-Rent
Positive cash flow possible with 20% down, especially in multi-family or student rentals
Cash Flow
2-3% annual appreciation expected through 2026
Appreciation

Buyer Journey Insights

First-Time Buyers

Seek affordable, move-in ready homes; benefit from down payment assistance and FHA/VA loans

Move-Up Buyers

Look for larger homes in good school districts; often sell existing property to fund purchase

Downsizers

Prefer low-maintenance homes or condos near amenities; value safety and walkability

Investors

Target multi-family, student housing, and value-add properties; focus on cash flow and appreciation

Relocators

Attracted by affordability and proximity to Bay Area; often seek newer homes or established neighborhoods

This city analysis was generated using comprehensive market data and AI intelligence.

Market conditions change rapidly - consult with local real estate professionals for the most current information.

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