Mesa

AZPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA

Real Estate Market Analysis

Q3 2025 Report
$445,000 (June 2025)
Median Home Price
~530,000 (2025 est.)
Population
$82,000 (2025 est.)
Median Income
Mesa Public Schools: B+ (Niche 2025)
School District Rating

Market Overview

Property Values

$445,000 (June 2025)
Median Home Price
$258
Price per Sq Ft
+2.8% year-over-year (2024-2025)
YoY Change

Market Performance

Days on Market27 days (median, June 2025)
Market TypeSeller's market
Months of Supply2.2 months (seller's market)

Sales Activity

Sales VolumeDown 4% YoY (reflecting tight inventory)
Metro AreaPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA
Population~530,000 (2025 est.)

Economic Indicators

Employment & Growth

Unemployment Rate4.1% (May-June 2025, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA)[2][3]
Job Growth Rate2.1% YoY (Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA, 2024-2025)[2]
Median Household Income$82,000 (2025 est.)

Major Employers

  • Banner Health
  • Mesa Public Schools
  • Boeing
  • Dexcom
  • Apple (data center)
  • Amazon
  • City of Mesa

Demographics

~530,000 (2025 est.)
Population
36.2 years
Median Age
1.7% annual (2024-2025)
Population Growth
31% bachelor's degree or higher
Education Level

Family Composition

34% households with children under 18

Key Industries

HealthcareEducationAerospace/DefenseTechnologyManufacturingRetail/Distribution

Education

School District

Mesa Public Schools: B+ (Niche 2025)
District Rating

Top Schools

  • Red Mountain High School
  • Mountain View High School
  • Basis Mesa (charter)

Higher Education

  • Arizona State University Polytechnic Campus
  • Mesa Community College
  • Benedictine University Mesa

Infrastructure & Development

Major Projects

  • Elliot Road Technology Corridor expansion
  • Mesa Gateway Airport upgrades
  • Downtown Mesa revitalization

Transportation

  • Light rail extension to Gilbert Rd/Main St
  • SR-24 Gateway Freeway expansion

Planned Developments

  • Mixed-use projects in Eastmark and Cadence
  • New industrial parks near Gateway Airport

Lifestyle & Amenities

Recreation

  • Usery Mountain Regional Park
  • Mesa Riverview Park
  • Desert Trails Bike Park

Dining & Entertainment

  • Downtown Mesa Arts Center
  • Main Street dining corridor
  • Mesa Amphitheatre

Cultural Attractions

  • Arizona Museum of Natural History
  • i.d.e.a. Museum
  • Mesa Arts Center

Investment Analysis

Investment Opportunities

  • Strong rental demand from population growth
  • Tech and aerospace job expansion
  • Downtown redevelopment incentives

Growth Outlook

Moderate price appreciation expected through 2026; rental demand remains robust.

Market Risks

  • Rising interest rates
  • Affordability constraints for first-time buyers
  • Potential for overbuilding in some submarkets

Rental Market

Median rent $2,050/mo (up 3.2% YoY); vacancy rate 4.5%

Marketing Intelligence

Target Demographics

  • Millennial families
  • Relocating professionals
  • Retirees seeking low-maintenance homes

Marketing Channels

  • Zillow/Realtor.com
  • Facebook/Instagram ads
  • Local real estate events

Pricing Strategies

Price slightly below recent comps to generate multiple offers in low-inventory segments.

Common Objections & Response Strategies

Objection: Homes are too expensive for my budget.

Response Strategy:

Highlight down payment assistance programs and lower-cost neighborhoods.

Objection: Interest rates are too high.

Response Strategy:

Discuss adjustable-rate or buydown options and long-term appreciation potential.

Objection: There's not enough inventory to find what I want.

Response Strategy:

Set up instant alerts and expand search criteria to nearby areas.

Professional Recommendations

1

Educate buyers on financing options and local assistance programs.

2

Leverage professional staging and digital marketing for listings.

3

Monitor new construction and infrastructure projects for emerging opportunities.

4

Network with local employers and relocation services to capture incoming talent.

5

Stay informed on zoning and development changes impacting inventory and values.

Competitive Analysis

Comparable Markets

  • Gilbert, AZ
  • Chandler, AZ
  • Tempe, AZ

Market Positioning

Mesa is positioned as an affordable, high-growth alternative to pricier East Valley cities.

Competitive Advantages

  • Lower median price than Chandler/Gilbert
  • Proximity to Gateway Airport and ASU Polytechnic
  • Robust infrastructure investment

Price Comparison

Mesa median price ~$445,000 vs. Gilbert $525,000, Chandler $510,000 (June 2025)

Investment Metrics

5.2% (multifamily, 2025)
Cap Rates
6.1% gross yield (single-family rentals)
Rental Yields
18.1
Price-to-Rent
Positive cash flow possible with 20% down in select submarkets
Cash Flow
3-4% annual home price growth through 2026
Appreciation

Buyer Journey Insights

First-Time Buyers

Facing affordability challenges; benefit from down payment assistance and FHA/VA options.

Move-Up Buyers

Motivated by job growth and family needs; seeking larger homes in top school zones.

Downsizers

Attracted to low-maintenance townhomes and active adult communities.

Investors

Focusing on value-add multifamily and single-family rentals in growth corridors.

Relocators

Drawn by job opportunities, climate, and lower cost of living compared to coastal states.

This city analysis was generated using comprehensive market data and AI intelligence.

Market conditions change rapidly - consult with local real estate professionals for the most current information.

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