Dry Creek

Modesto, CA

Neighborhood Market Analysis

Q3 2025 Report
$425,000 (Q2 2025 estimate for Dry Creek area, based on Modesto averages and local trends)
Median Home Price
62 (Moderate; higher near parks and trails)
Walkability Score
Public schools in the area are rated above average (GreatSchools 6-8/10), with strong parent involvement.
School Rating

Location Overview

Neighborhood Boundaries

Generally follows Dry Creek from its confluence with the Tuolumne River, running northwest through Modesto. Includes areas adjacent to Scenic Drive, with proximity to the Tuolumne River Regional Park and the Dry Creek Trail system. Notable addresses include 800-1130 Scenic Drive and 830-1100 Scenic Avenue.

Zip Codes

95354

Market Data Summary

Price Range$350,000 - $600,000 depending on lot size, home age, and proximity to creek/trails
Price per Sq Ft$260 - $320
Inventory LevelsTight; less than 1.5 months of inventory as of July 2025.

Property Characteristics

Home Types & Architecture

Home Types

Single-family homesTownhomes (limited)

Architectural Styles

RanchMid-century modernContemporaryTraditional California bungalow

Property Details

Typical Lot Sizes6,000 - 12,000 sq ft; some larger lots along creekside
Home Age Range1940s - 1980s, with some newer infill and remodels
Construction QualityGenerally above average, with many homes updated or well-maintained; some older properties may need modernization.

Community Profile

Demographics & Lifestyle

Demographics

Diverse, with a mix of young families, professionals, and retirees. Median age ~38. Moderate income levels, with some higher-income pockets along the creek.

Community Vibe

Active, outdoors-oriented, and community-minded. Residents participate in beautification and neighborhood watch programs.

Typical Residents

  • Families
  • Young professionals
  • Retirees

Family Friendly

Yes; proximity to parks, trails, and good schools attracts families.

Amenities & Lifestyle

Parks & Recreation

  • Dry Creek Trail
  • Tuolumne River Regional Park
  • East La Loma Park

Dining Options

  • Local cafes
  • Family-owned Mexican and Italian restaurants
  • Quick-service chains nearby

Shopping Centers

  • Scenic Plaza
  • Shops at McHenry Village (short drive)

Local Businesses

  • Dry Creek Coffee House
  • Scenic Drive Market
  • Neighborhood fitness studios

Education & Schools

Public schools in the area are rated above average (GreatSchools 6-8/10), with strong parent involvement.
Overall School Rating

Elementary Schools

  • La Loma Junior High (serves as middle school but adjacent elementary schools: Enslen Elementary, Rose Avenue Elementary)

Middle Schools

  • La Loma Junior High

High Schools

  • Downey High School

Private Schools

  • Modesto Christian School (nearby)
  • Our Lady of Fatima School

Transportation & Accessibility

Transit & Roads

Public Transit

  • Modesto Area Express (MAX) bus routes along Scenic Drive and Yosemite Blvd

Major Roads

  • Scenic Drive
  • Yosemite Blvd
  • Oakdale Rd

Commute & Walkability

Commute Times10-15 minutes to downtown Modesto; 5-10 minutes to major shopping; 30-40 minutes to Stockton or Turlock.
WalkabilityModerate; excellent for recreation, less so for daily errands.
ParkingAmple street and driveway parking; some congestion near parks on weekends.

Marketing Intelligence

Target Buyer Types

  • Families with children
  • Outdoor enthusiasts
  • Retirees seeking quiet neighborhoods
  • Young professionals

Key Selling Points

  • Access to trails and parks
  • Above-average schools
  • Active, engaged community
  • Low crime rates

Pricing Considerations

Homes with modern updates and creek views command a premium (5-10% over neighborhood average).

Common Objections & Response Strategies

Objection: Some homes are in the floodplain, requiring extra insurance.

Response Strategy:

Provide recent flood map data and highlight city investments in flood mitigation; compare insurance costs to overall affordability.

Objection: Older homes may need significant updates.

Response Strategy:

Showcase recent remodels in the area and provide cost estimates for common upgrades; connect buyers with local contractors.

Objection: Limited walkability for errands.

Response Strategy:

Emphasize recreational walkability and short drive times to shopping and dining.

Investment Insights

Investment Potential

Appreciation Potential

Moderate to strong due to limited inventory, proximity to recreation, and ongoing city beautification efforts.

Rental Demand

High for single-family homes; limited multifamily inventory.

Buyer Competition

Strong, especially for updated homes near parks.

Best For

  • Move-up buyers
  • Families
  • Investors seeking stable appreciation

Potential Concerns

  • Older homes may need updates
  • Floodplain insurance requirements for some properties

Professional Recommendations

1

Highlight proximity to Dry Creek Trail and parks in all marketing materials.

2

Educate buyers on floodplain and insurance requirements early in the process.

3

Network with local contractors for value-add buyers seeking renovation opportunities.

4

Stage homes to emphasize outdoor living and flexible spaces.

5

Leverage city beautification and safety initiatives as selling points.

6

Monitor surplus land redevelopment for future inventory and investment opportunities.

Competitive Analysis

Comparable Markets

  • La Loma
  • College Area
  • Northwest Modesto

Market Positioning

Premium Modesto neighborhood for outdoor lifestyle and family living.

Competitive Advantages

  • Direct access to Dry Creek Trail and Tuolumne River Regional Park
  • Active community beautification programs
  • Lower crime rates than city average

Price Comparison

Slightly higher than Modesto median due to location and amenities; more affordable than La Loma but more desirable than central/downtown areas.

Investment Metrics

4.5% - 5.2% for single-family rentals (2025 est.)
Cap Rates
5.5% - 6.5% gross annual yield
Rental Yields
16-18
Price-to-Rent
Positive for well-priced, updated homes; limited for luxury or over-improved properties.
Cash Flow
2-4% annual appreciation expected through 2026.
Appreciation

Buyer Journey Insights

First-Time Buyers

Attracted by community feel and parks, but may be priced out of updated homes; FHA/VA options available for older properties.

Move-Up Buyers

Strong interest in larger lots and proximity to schools/trails; often local Modesto residents upgrading.

Downsizers

Seek low-maintenance homes near recreation; limited inventory of single-story or smaller homes.

Investors

Target updated homes for stable rental income; value-add opportunities in older properties.

Relocators

Drawn by Modesto’s affordability and outdoor amenities compared to Bay Area or Sacramento.

This neighborhood analysis was generated using hyperlocal data and AI intelligence.

Neighborhood conditions change - consult with local real estate professionals for the most current information.

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